On 29 September the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent. The decision was unanimous, and CommBank counts it as the fourth increase of 2026. The Board said inflation remains elevated and that upside risks it flagged in August are materialising. Among the drivers it listed were much higher global energy prices, domestic capacity pressures — and AI-related demand pushing technology goods prices higher.
That last point isn’t abstract. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 13–18% and NAND flash 10–15% in the September quarter, and IDC’s June-quarter figures show PC shipments down 4.9% year on year while revenue climbs. Fewer units, higher prices. Gartner still forecasts Australian IT spending to grow 8.7% to A$192.2 billion in 2027, with devices up 5.5%. The dollar at around 70 US cents takes some of the sting out of imported hardware. Not all of it.
For a small business the read is simple: borrowing is dearer, hardware is dearer, and the Board has said it will raise rates further if it needs to. So stagger device refreshes instead of replacing everything at once, keep good hardware in service longer rather than replacing on a calendar, and move what makes sense to predictable monthly spend — Microsoft 365, Azure Virtual Desktop and Windows 365 are all per-user, per-month. Lock licence pricing on annual terms where headcount is stable. What not to trim: backup, security licensing and patching. A breach costs more than any rate rise.